As the final week of regular season has arrived in college basketball, the West Virginia Mountaineers are still alive and well in the bubble discussion for the NCAA Tournament.
The Mountaineers pulled off a massive upset in a must-win situation against the BYU Cougars over the weekend, and now have a road trip to Kansas State on Tuesday night before they close the season on Friday night at home against the UCF Knights.
On Monday, ESPN analyst Joe Lunardi released his morning Bracketology update, and the Mountaineers have climbed back into the "Next Four Out" section of his projection for the first time since before the loss to Oklahoma State last week.
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) March 2, 2026
The Mountaineers have most recently sat in the list of next teams considered after the "Next Four Out" after clinging to the bubble discussion throughout a three-game losing streak in recent weeks.
How do the West Virginia Mountaineers get into the NCAA Tournament?
Right now, WVU basketball is still in must-win mode. You can't afford a loss to this Kansas State team, and you need the resume boost of sweeping UCF – if you win both, you finish the regular season at 19-12 and 10-8 in Big 12 play. Last year, that same overall record and a 10-10 record in expanded Big 12 play left the Mountaineers out of the field.
Then, you're probably going to want at least one Big 12 Tournament win to feel secure of being in the NCAA Tournament discussion. A Quad 1 win, if they can earn one, will be a big deal as well. But that's up to the luck of the draw. Two wins would be preferable.
But also remember this – since the 2011 NCAA Tournament, 76 of 76 Big 12 teams with a record above .500 in conference play have made the Big Dance, and 90 of 93 Big 12 teams who have finished the regular season above .600 have done the same. If WVU wins out this week, they've hit both those benchmarks without a Big 12 tournament win.
Should WVU be higher in the bubble discussion?
The Mountaineers enter the final week of the regular season with five Quad 1 wins.
If you look around the rest of the country, WVU is one of 30 Division 1 programs that currently has five Quad 1 wins – among those teams, the Mountaineers are one of only two not included the latest projection, alongside an Auburn team that is currently 15-14 and 6-10 in SEC play. And Auburn has been included in most recent projections before Monday morning, and is currently listed as the first team out – six spots ahead of the Mountaineers.
Yet the Mountaineers are only 59th in the latest NET rankings update, still suffering from their close games against weak opponents in non-conference play, their tough losses in non-conference, and the Quad 3 loss against Utah. There is a case to be made either way, and we'll have to wait and see where the Mountaineers end up in just under two weeks on Selection Sunday.