WVU head football coach Rich Rodriguez would have liked his first season back at the helm of the program to go a bit smoother. The Mountaineers finished at 4-8 on the season, which isn't exactly anyone's idea of successful – but it's also worth remembering that it takes time to rebuild a program, and Rodriguez wasn't tossed into the best situation.
Expectations will be a bit loftier in 2026, however, and it will be harder to justify a second consecutive losing season. Recently, Vegas oddsmakers released win totals for Power 4 teams for next season, and if the Mountaineers don't exceed their number, Rodriguez might feel his seat start to get hot.
West Virginia Mountaineers win total for 2026 set at 5.5 wins
Can WVU football win six games in 2026? That's the magic question, according to the oddsmakers. The Mountaineers need six victories to hit the over. And that makes it really easy to use this as a quick tool to evaluate how those who follow West Virginia football will feel if they don't have a winning season next year.
Obviously, expectations should be tampered. This is once again a roster with over 80 new players, and a Big 12 Championship being set as the standard for the second year under Rodriguez would be a bit lofty.
But the Mountaineers do bring in Top 20 high school and transfer portal recruiting classes, Rodriguez and his staff had plenty of time to prepare to build this roster, and there are enough returning players for a baseline culture to be set. And reflecting back, there were a lot of injuries issues last year. So you would naturally expect this incoming team to eke out a couple more wins.
So think to yourself: how would you feel about the state of the program if the Mountaineers run into another losing season this year? Are you confident in the future of the program? Likely, many supporters of the program – including donors and administrators – are going to tell you no. Maybe it's not a situation where you fire Rodriguez a year ahead of his contract expiring, but his seat will heat up significantly.
The good news? Looking at the schedule, 6-6 feels super achievable, even for a team continuing to rebuild. You open the season with a Group of 5 team with a new head coach coming off an average season, and then an FCS opponent. There are plenty of tossups, but only 3-4 games you feel the Mountaineers are likely to lose. If you can manage to find ways to win those tossups, six wins shouldn't be difficult.