There hasn't been a ton of confidence around the college football world in WVU football getting off to a strong start during Rich Rodriguez's second tenure with the program.
The Mountaineers were graded highly by Athlon Sports for the Rodriguez hire, but predicted to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 by the same publication -- and the outlook for West Virginia isn't much better according to the Kelley-Ford Ratings. But at least one college football analyst believes that the Mountaineers could be in for a big season in 2025.
On Thursday's edition of the CBS Sports Cover 3 Podcast, dark horse candidates in the Big 12 were among the topics of discussion -- and veteran analyst Tom Fornelli gave some love to Rodriguez and the Mountaineers.
"I am going to go with West Virginia -- I am buying into the Rich Rod hype," Fornelli said. "I just like Rich Rod as a coach, I don't think it's a coincidence that he's won everywhere he's gone...he's never had bad teams."
But while Fornelli is partial to Rodriguez's track record as a head coach, there was another specific reason he believes in WVU football as a dark horse candidate -- and even pointed to a recent college football success story that he felt shared a similar formula.
"Tell me if this sounds familiar -- a new coach comes in, brings in a ton of recruits, a lot of them from his former G5 school, which was a competitive program in his conference. That program's named Indiana and it was Curt Cignetti, and we saw what the Hoosiers did. Rich Rod's coming to West Virginia and he's bringing a whole lot of Jacksonville State boys with him," Fornelli said.
"So there's already some familiarity with the coaching staff and the players and the playbook and all that kind of stuff. And I think that when you look at the Big 12 that there's so much opportunity to just win at the margins, and I think that is one of those margins with that kind of familiarity in this era...West Virginia has that familiarity, there's not going to be as a transition which could give them a little bit of a head start."
It's a fair point to make -- Cignetti took 13 players and 12 coaches and staff members with him from James Madison. The number is slightly lower for WVU, but still significant -- eight players on the roster played under Rodriguez for the Gamecocks, with two of those athletes (Xavier Bausley and Kekoura Tarnue) having left the program following the 2023 season and played under Neal Brown at WVU in 2024. Rodriguez also similarly brought along 12 coaches and staff members to Morgantown.
When Rodriguez was asked during spring football about how bringing those coaches and players over helped in the transition process and getting his locker room culture established quickly, he admitted that there were some benefits to the setup.
"Those guys would say that guy might look crazy, he might even be crazy, but there's a method to the craziness," he said.
WVU HC Rich Rodriguez on transfers from Jacksonville State helping instill a new program culture: "Those guys would say that guy might look crazy, he might even be crazy, but there's a method to the craziness."
— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) March 1, 2025
Of course, Fornelli has been known to swing and miss on the Mountaineers before -- he also labelled them a dark horse pick ahead of the 2024 season, which saw WVU finish 6-7 and part ways with their head coach of six seasons.
Neal Brown recently pointed to the media doubting WVU again as motivation for West Virginia in 2024, but there are some analyst who do believe in the Mountaineers.
In fact, WVU was mentioned as a sleeper pick to win one of the Power Four conference titles on an episode of CBS Sports’ “The Cover 3 Podcast” with hosts Chip Patterson and Tom Fornelli. The pair were asked which teams with 15-1 odds or worse have the best chance to win a conference title and reach the College Football Playoff.
The conversation then turned to the Big 12, and while Arizona was mentioned first, the conversation then turned to West Virginia.
“You know what, West Virginia is a team I think is getting a little slept on too,” said Fornelli. “I’m not picking them (to win the league), but I just think WV might be a beneficiary of this new look Big 12 where it’s going to be kind of coin flippy and a couple plays can decide games," he said last summer.