After an ugly loss to the Baylor Bears last Saturday, WVU basketball's NCAA Tournament hopes have taken a hit.
Famous for his 'Bracketology,' ESPN analyst Joe Lunardi spends a large chunk of his time during this part of the year trying to figure out just who will make the final 68-team field for the NCAA Tournament.
And while Lunardi's previous edition of projections at the end of last week didn't have the Mountaineers in the field, they were among the first 12 teams outside of the field, leaving them promptly on the bubble. And while a more detailed update will come on Tuesday, Lunardi shared his most recent work on Monday on X (formerly known as Twitter) – and it doesn't bode well for WVU.
How can WVU basketball find a way to play in March Madness?
The West Virginia Mountaineers were nowhere to be found – not even among the final 12 teams outside the field – in Lunardi's Monday update. So what is the path to the NCAA Tournament for the Mountaineers, who currently sit 14-8 overall and 5-4 in Big 12 play with nine games remaining.
Well, West Virginia has five Quad 1 games, three Quad 2 games, and one Quad 3 game remaining. Two of those Quad 1 games come against Top 25 opponents in Texas Tech and BYU, with the others being road games against TCU, Oklahoma State, and UCF. Realistically, WVU needs to win at least two or three of these games – and we all know Tech and BYU seem unlikely.
Then, the Mountaineers will have their three Quad 2 opponents with road games against Cincinnati and Kansas State and a home game against UCF. The Mountaineers will want to aim to go 2-1 in those games at worst. The Quad 3 game, a home affair against Utah? That's pretty much a must-win, unless WVU plans on reeling off a couple Top 25 wins in the final month of play.
That would give the Mountaineers a 5-4 finish the rest of the way at worst, and a 6-3 finish at best. That would put WVU either 19-12 or 20-11 overall, with a record of over .500 in league play. Last year, the Mountaineers finished 19-13 overall and 10-10 in an expanded Big 12 season, and that saw them snubbed from the postseason (though many pundits and analysts disagreed with that decision).
So not considering the conference tournament, WVU will want to finish the season out with at least five or six victories in their final nine games, which seems attainable but difficult given their recent play. That would leave them in a position to compete for a bubble spot. What would significantly help is if the Mountaineers pulled off three of those Quad 1 wins, with at least one coming against Tech or BYU.
Of course, a strong conference tournament run could boost the Mountaineers over the bubble even without that scenario coming to fruition. If the Mountaineers finish 19-12, for example, but pull off several Big 12 Tournament wins, that would change the outlook.
So the final verdict? WVU does still have plenty to play for, and an NCAA Tournament bid is far from out of reach – but the Mountaineers will need to put in some serious work to make it happen.