WVU basketball surprisingly still on bubble in shocking Bracketology update

The West Virginia Mountaineers seemed to see their NCAA Tournament dreams dashed last week in a loss to Big 12 bottom-dweller Utah.

And after they still seemed to be clinging onto the bubble in Bracketology projections entering Saturday's road trip to TCU, the season certainly seemed lost after the Mountaineers choked away a six-point lead to lose back-to-back games for the first time since November.

But Bracketology experts seem to like the idea of West Virginia still being able to pull off a late run at the tournament, and ESPN's Joe Lunardi still had WVU included in the 'Next Four Out' – the same spot they occupied entering Saturday – after the loss to TCU.

How Can The West Virginia Mountaineers still make the NCAA Tournament?

Well, the answer to that question is that it's getting a lot harder to see a clear path. WVU is now 16-11 overall, and 7-7 in Big 12 action, with four games remaining.

One important thing to look at here is that since 2012, only five out of 75 Big 12 teams with nine or more conference wins have missed the NCAA Tournament – in other words, 93% of Big 12 teams make the big dance when they win at least nine games.

Out of the five exceptions, three came last year, when the Big 12 expanded from 18 conference games to 20 conference games, before returning to the previous format this season. WVU went 10-10 in league play, while TCU and Kansas State went 9-11. The other two examples came in 2013 with Baylor finishing 9-9 in the league, and 2014 with WVU finishing 9-9 in the league.

By these standards, if WVU wins two of its final four games, it could still have a decent shot to be in play. If they win three of those four games, those odds go up more. The latter scenario puts WVU at 19-12 to finish the regular season, which was exactly where the program finished the regular season last year. An opening-round conference tournament loss would then knock them from the field.

The Big 12 Tournament could also provide an opportunity for a run, and a win or two against some high-quality opponents in Kansas City could be as much of a difference maker as a loss to Colorado was last year. Also, keep an eye on four teams – Cincinnati, Ohio State, TCU, and UCF.

The Bearcats were swept by WVU this season but are on a four-game win streak since, with wins over UCF and Kansas. They also crept into the bubble discussion in the most recent Bracketology update. TCU and Ohio State both own wins over the Mountaineers, and are currently projected among the "Last Four In" the tournament field. The better they finish, the better for WVU.

UCF, meanwhile, is listed among the last four at-large bids to receive a bye round during the First Four. The Mountaineers already knocked off UCF in Orlando, and will play them again at home in the coming weeks. That game will be important, as will a home showdown with No. 23 BYU this Saturday. Winning both would be preferable, but at least one will likely be required to boost their tournament resume.

Then, a tricky road game is coming up next against Oklahoma State that could sabotage things further with a loss. The Cowboys are currently at the tail end of bubble consideration, and if they hand West Virginia their third straight loss, it will get even harder to consider them a tournament team. If WVU does lose a game during the final stretch, it can't be this one.