Back in early September, it appeared as though Rich Rodriguez had something up his sleeve for his first season back in Morgantown after pulling off a comeback win in the Backyard Brawl. However, since beating Pitt, the Mountaineers have lost five straight.
West Virginia did get a bump last week from redshirt freshman quarterback Scotty Fox Jr., who went 28-for-41 for 301 yards and two touchdowns in the 23-17 loss to the Horned Frogs. Is Fox the long-term answer at QB? Time will tell, but he has to be the answer on Saturday when the Mountaineers play No. 22 Houston on the road with just two healthy scholarship quarterbacks.
Willie Fritz, on the other side, has the Cougars rolling in Year 2, one of the upstart surprises of the season at 7-1 with a chance to play for the Big 12 title. Coming off last week’s win over Arizona State, that path is clear, unless WVU can prove to be a roadblock with an upset victory in Week 10.
While it’s not exactly a rivalry, there could be a bit of bad blood in the ‘Dana Holgorsen Bowl.’ This is just the second-ever meeting between these two programs, with the 2023 contest coming down to the wire, a 41-39 Houston win.
Let’s take a look at the odds for this Big 12 matchup.
West Virginia vs. Houston odds, spread, and total
These odds are available in the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline
- West Virginia +410
- Houston -549
Spread
- West Virginia +13.5 (-115)
- Houston -13.5 (-105)
Total
- 48.5 (over -104/under -120)
Betting odds are subject to change
West Virginia vs. Houston prediction
The West Virginia offense has not moved the ball well all season, ranking 125th in NET EPA/drive on that side of the ball. Yet last week, with Fox throwing for 301 yards and averaging 7.0 yards per dropback, the Mountaineers won the success rate battle against TCU and had a real chance to win the game.
Houston doesn’t run the ball well, and may struggle to move it on WVU, so as long as the Mountaineers can limit explosive plays in the passing game, as they did against TCU, holding the Horned Frogs to a one percent explosive play rate last week, they could find themselves in this game much of the way.
It’s hard to have any faith that West Virginia can win this game. Houston is the type of team that can wear a thin program in the first year under a new head coach down late. However, West Virginia should have enough firepower to throw a punch in the first half, so my best bet for this one is West Virginia +7.5 (-124) in the first half. As for the full game, I do think there’s a chance the Mountaineers cover the 13.5 as well.
Final score prediction: Houston 30 West Virginia 17
Follow all Josh Yourish’s betting picks HERE