There are plenty of reasons to believe that the West Virginia Mountaineers will look much better on the gridiron this coming season than they did in 2025. Head coach Rich Rodriguez is entering his second season back with the program, and that brings a bit more stability. He also had more time and money to work with when putting together his roster, which is reflected in the added talent.
But after winning just four games last year, it's understandable why some people across college football might not see WVU as a legitimate contender right now. And while there have been plenty of grim outlooks for the Mountaineers as we gear up to beging the 2026 campaign, the latest might be the worst possible outcome projected yet.
WVU football projected as last place finisher in the Big 12
Sports outlet Top Tier recently dropped their Big 12 projections for the upcoming season, and they were not kind to the Mountaineers at all. In the listed Big 12 standings, they predict West Virginia will reeat their dismal finish from last season, which saw them go 4-8 overal and 2-7 in Big 12 play. Even worse, they expect this to land the Mountaineers a last-place finish in the league.
Top Tier’s 2026 Big 12 Football Predictions pic.twitter.com/Qcfwb9JKX7
— Top Tier (@TopTierStateX) July 24, 2026
This would be a disaster for the Mountaineers, and would likely spell the beginning of the end of Rodriguez's second tenure with the Mountaineers. But it also doesn't feel like a scenario that will happen. The schedule is much easier for West Virginia this year, and six wins feels much more likely than four. And honestly, five wins seems more like the absolute floor than four wins.
And even if the Mountaineers fail to post a winning record, it's hard to imagine them being the worst team in the conference. That spot will most likely be reserved for Iowa State, who is historically one of the worst teams in the FBS prior to the Matt Campbell era.
Now Campbell is gone, the Cyclones replaced him super late in the cycle, and they are also facing a completely revamped roster. So if anything, the Mountaineers should be better than Iowa State, at the least. But it's possible Rich Rodriguez prefers the disrespect continue to come ahead of the season, as it might serve as extra motivation for his current group.
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