The betting odds are starting to shift for West Virginia's Week 5 game against the Iowa State Cyclones, and it has us wondering what the Vegas oddsmakers might see in West Virginia's first loss – or in Iowa State's early performance – that has them feeling this way.
The Mountaineers opened as favorites when the odds were first released, which probably makes sense to most West Virginia fans – after all, West Virginia is 3-1 with a Power 4 win over the defending ACC runner-up team, and their sole loss came against an Oklahoma State team now ranked in the AP Top 25. But the odds have quickly shifted, and are becoming worse by the hour – as of Monday evening, the Cyclones are now 3.5-point favorites.
Why the betting odds for West Virginia-Iowa State are so perplexing
Listen, we get it. Iowa State has looked more competitive than expected this season. That's understandable. But they have a worse record than West Virginia, as they're only 2-2. Their wins are similar to West Virginia's from the first two weeks – an FCS opponent and a Group of 6 opponent. But they've lost both games against Power 4 competition.
And we do understand that they lost by three points to a Top 25 Iowa team, and by 14 points to a Top 25 Utah team. But West Virginia beat Virginia on a neutral-site, who were ranked at the time, and lost by 17 points to Oklahoma State, who are also now a Top 25 teams. So why doesn't West Virginia's 1-1 against a similar set of opponents trump a competitive 0-2 from Iowa State.
It's similar to how West Virginia only received votes in last week's Top 25 poll while Virginia dropped out after losing to the Mountaineers, but after Oklahoma State beats West Virginia, they leap into the Top 25 while the Mountaineers are no longer receiving votes after losing to a quality opponent that's ranked in that poll. It makes no sense.
It feels like West Virginia's always a bit of an underdog in college football, and these opening odds feel a bit surprising given where both teams are at entering Week 5. But whether or not they're actually wrong is a question we'll have answered on Saturday.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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