West Virginia is a heavy underdog at home this Saturday in their matchup with the fifth-ranked Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are favored by about three touchdowns against the Mountaineers. Needless to say, it’s a long shot that West Virginia upsets Texas Tech, and in doing so shakes things up in the Big 12 and College Football Playoff picture. We’re not here to predict a West Virginia victory, but we can do is give you a list of four things that West Virginia must do in order to shock Texas Tech, and the college football world.
Find a way to run the football
Honestly, this may be the toughest task on our list of items that the Mountaineers need. Quite literally, the Red Raiders possess the best run defense in the nation. Texas Tech has allowed just 71.8 rushing yards per game to opposing offenses, which is first among all FBS teams. To make matters even more difficult, when teams do drop back to pass, they have been incredibly effective at getting to the quarterback, with the Big 12 leading 33 sacks this season.
We just don’t see any path for the Mountaineers to hang around in this football game if they are ineffective on the ground. Texas Tech is 10-1 for a reason: their defense is stout. To expect Scotty Fox Jr. to drop back and throw it all over the field and lead you to victory while you run for 40 or so yards is rather unrealistic. Unlike every team the Red Raiders have faced this season, Rich Rodriguez and the Mountaineers will have to find a way to run the football in order to have a chance. A 200-plus yard performance on the ground is a very far-fetched ask, but it might be required.
50/50 plays all must go West Virginia’s way
As a heavy underdog, you are going to need every bounce to go your way. You want the kind of game that leaves Texas Tech saying, “everything that could go wrong, did go wrong.” We’re talking about a cornerback who trips over his own feet, leaving a WVU wide receiver wide open for a 75-yard touchdown. Not only does West Virginia need to play extremely well, but they’ll need Texas Tech to play an uncharacteristic game full of mental mishaps and missed opportunities. The Mountaineers will need several “weird” plays to swing the game in their direction if they want to pull off the massive upset.
Win the turnover battle by a margin of 3 or more
Is there any way that West Virginia hangs around in this game without forcing numerous turnovers? The short answer is no. The fact of the matter is, WVU will have to play clean football for four quarters, and their opponent is going to have to play their most undisciplined game of the season. Winning the turnover battle by one or two will not cut it. The Mountaineers will need to benefit from a 3+ turnover margin, and perhaps have one of them be a pick-6 like the one Jordan Scruggs got in the win on the road over Houston. Zac Alley’s defensive scheme preaches the importance of forcing turnovers, and he has previously said the program standard at three-or-more turnovers per game. There is no better time for that to be on display than against the Red Raiders.
Cam Vaughn Explosion
In order to do the improbable, WVU is going to need several players on offense to have an incredible showing. The one we will go with here is wide receiver Cam Vaughn. Vaughn has shown flashes of greatness even with a revolving door at quarterback through the first half of the season. Frankly, there have been games where a talented player like Vaughn simply was not targeted enough.
On Saturday afternoon, West Virginia must have a wide receiver steal the show. The most likely candidate is Cam Vaughn. He will need to have his best game of the season. The Mountaineers will need a performance of double-digit receptions, at least 150 yards, and likely a couple touchdowns. In their lone loss of the season, Texas Tech simply could not contain Arizona State wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, who caught 10 passes for 105 yards and a touchdown. Jaren Hamilton also eclipsed the 100-yard receiving mark for the Sun Devils. Of course, it is extremely difficult to find any flaws with this Texas Tech defense collectively, but Cam Vaughn is West Virginia’s best hope on the outside.