Part 1: HailWV's 2024 Big 12 Football Preseason Power Rankings
By Joseph Smith
As we prepare for the final days of July amidst the oppressive summer heat, there remains just over one month until the 2024 college football season gets underway. Let's take a look at the first of a two-part set of power rankings that lays out the Big 12 from top-to-bottom. This article features teams ranked 16th through 9th, with teams ranked 8th through 1st coming at a later date.
16. Houston
While Houston football likely faces a bright future under the guidance of former Tulane head coach Willie Fritz, who takes the helm in his first year with the Cougars, the immediate future looks a bit bleak for the program’s second year in the Big 12.
A lot of this falls on former coach Dana Holgorsen, who was dismissed by the program following a 4-8 season in their debut Big 12 season. Holgorsen recorded just two winning seasons among his five at the helm, but his real downfall was recruiting failures.
Despite fertile recruiting ground in Texas, Holgorsen secured no Top-50 classes while with the program, and upon his departure the 2024 recruiting class was ranked an abysmal 102nd overall by 247Sports. Since taking over, Fritz has brought the class up to 60th overall, but talent will still likely be lacking in his first season.
15. Arizona State
After finishing their last Pac-12 season at 3-9 overall, the Sun Devils look to rebound under native son Kenny Dillingham’s second year. But the challenge awaiting is nothing to sneeze at.
The biggest question comes at arguably the most important position -- quarterback. It’s a position the team struggled to find consistency with last year, with four different players starting at least one game. Of those four, only one of them returns this season in senior Trenton Bourguet, who was underwhelming in the eight games he played last year -- he threw 248 passes and completed 151 of those, but managed just 1,486 yards and one touchdown while tossing four interceptions.
The other two options are transfers Jeff Simms and Sam Leavitt, with neither inspiring confidence. Simms managed just 282 passing yards with one touchdown but six interceptions at Nebraska, while Leavitt was a freshman at Michigan State who saw limited action to preserve a redshirt. The lack of a definitively talented quarterback could jettison the Sun Devils to the bottom of the league.
14. BYU
BYU has a lot to work on offensively if they want to prove themselves a contender in the Big 12.
The Cougars struggled immensely on offense last season -- in fact, they were last statistically in most offensive categories in the Big 12. They managed just 23.1 points per game and 309.8 offensive yards per game, which was dead last in both categories. They also were at the bottom of the league in terms of offensive efficiency.
One bright spot offensively could be the emergence of new quarterbacks -- USF transfer Gerry Bohanon was inconsistent last fall, but has starting experience with Baylor in the Big 12. Meanwhile, former top-ranked JUCO star Jake Retzlaff is in year two with BYU and preserved a redshirt while getting four games of experience last season. The Cougars did finish in the top half of the conference in interceptions thrown and sacks given up, so groundwork is present for an offensive improvement.
13. Cincinnati
While it was more than a disappointing first season in the Big 12 for Cincinnati, this isn’t a program too far removed from a playoff appearance -- a winning culture still permeates the program as a whole.
Scott Satterfield is in year two at the helm of the program, and he has a bonafide leader and future NFL star in defensive lineman Dontay Corleone, who is projected in numerous first-round mock drafts for 2025.
Satterfield also landed a quarterback in Brendan Sorsby who showed a tremendous upside in seven starts for Indiana last season, and he could be among the league’s best at the position by his final season. How he develops under Satterfield’s system could be a key in how well the Bearcats perform in 2024.
12. Baylor
Baylor finished up a disappointing 2023 season at 3-9 with head coach Dave Aranda on the hot seat entering 2024.
Now, Aranda will be fighting for his job and will be shaking things up in 2024. The offensive staff will look different with Jake Spavital coming from Cal with his spread-style offense and previous Big 12 experience, and the Bears also added former Toledo quarterback and MAC Player of the Year DeQuan Finn, who was named a top performer among college quarterbacks at the Manning Passing Academy.
Baylor is likely not going to be the worst team in the league, but the question remains if they can perform at a level that saves Dave Aranda his job.
11. Texas Tech
Texas Tech underperformed compared to expectations for many last year, but managed to close the season with a winning conference record (the first time in back-to-back seasons since the Mike Leach tenure) and a bowl appearance with a win.
The Red Raiders bring back the second-best producing back in the conference from last season in Tahj Brooks, who averaged 118.3 yards per game last fall, and also add their highest-ranked recruit in history as Class of 2024 five-star prospect Micah Hudson joins the roster.
The Red Raiders went 3-3 in one-score games last season, and if that luck bounced in their favor a little more often, this could be another solid rebuilding year for coach Joey Maguire as he attempts to build a winner in Lubbock.
10. Colorado
It's hard to tell what to expect with Colorado in the Deion Sanders era.
The team certainly took a jump during his first season, going from one win in 2022 to four wins in 2023. However, the team also didn’t quite match the hype surrounding the program after a 3-0 start, and they faltered to finish 1-8 down the stretch. The turnover within the program is once again high as well, with 48 players leaving via the transfer portal and 42 new athletes joining -- posing questions about depth and program culture.
But the Buffaloes return two top players in the nation in quarterback Shedeur Sanders and defensive back and wide receiver Travis Hunter, and they did have some poor luck with five losses in one-score games. So they certainly have a high ceiling if Sanders’ abrasive coaching style and transfer-heavy system falls into place a little more smoothly this season.
9. TCU
TCU was a team thought by many to be incredibly lucky en route to a 2022 National Championship appearance, going 6-1 in one-score games and winning another three games by just ten points. Last year was an opposite experience -- they finished 5-7 and missed the postseason entirely, going 0-4 in one-score games in the process.
It's clear head coach Sonny Dykes can win big, but luck fell away from his favor last season. However, statistically, TCU averaged anywhere from average to good in terms of where it ranked in numerous categories both offensively and defensively. If luck evens out this fall and TCU maintains previous levels of play, it could be a good year in Fort Worth.
What holds TCU lower in these rankings is the combo of getting mentally prepared to shake off a bad season combined with the spring practice absence of presumed starter Josh Hoover.