Cover 3 Podcast crew offers analysis on WVU-Penn State matchup

With the spotlight shining on West Virginia football ahead of their upcoming Week 1 opener against No. 8 Penn State, the talking heads across the major sports networks are starting to weigh in on how they think the matchup will go.

Some of the top college football analysts with CBS Sports operate the Cover 3 Podcast, one of the most listened to college football podcasts in the country. On Tuesday, they sat down for a segment on CBS Sports where they looked towards some Week 1 Big Ten matchups, including the Penn State-WVU clash in Morgantown.

Unfortunately for Mountaineer fans, it seems as though the Cover 3 crew aren’t too optimistic about WVU’s ability to contend with Penn State this weekend. One member of the team, Tom Fornelli, believes that if Penn State’s new offense under former Kansas offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki can capture some of the magic his run game offered at his last stop, it will bode well for the Nittany Lions.

“I think in this matchup it's going to be all about running the ball,” he said “Last season Penn State ranked 86th nationally in explosive run rate. Compare that to Kansas, where Andy Kotelnicki was last year with lesser talent, and they were 21st nationally. So will he be able to bring that to this offense to create more big plays, create more explosive plays, and just generally make life a lot easier on Drew Allar.”

Fornelli cites a poor WVU run defense from last season as a top reason why that sort of run game could create problems for WVU on Saturday.

“You look at West Virginia last season, they ranked 105th nationally on EPA (Expected Points Added) allowed per rush,” he said. “This was a defense that had trouble stopping the run, that is something I think might be some improvement going into a new season, but I don't know how drastic an improvement we’ll be able to see. so I think Penn State needs to step forward and keep their foot on the gas on the ground.”

Another crew member, Bud Elliott, thinks that Garrett Greene could make a difference, and that difference will be based on just how much Greene stepped up his game over the off-season. He points out Greene’s consistency issues and lack of proven ability at delivering passes across the middle as potential weak spots Penn State can dial in on.

“Penn State has guys that can run with you,” Elliot said. “So has Garrett Greene expanded what he can do, and has this Mountaineer offense expanded what it can do around him, so they can’t just key in on this stuff.”

He also thinks Penn State’s weaknesses defensively still matchup well against what he calls a WVU receiver group that “doesn’t really scare you.”

“[Penn State] has some inexperience at corne,” he said. “Now the Penn State program does recruit corners very well, and West Virginia, at least last year, doesn’t really have guys who scare you at the receiver position. So this could in theory be a good game for them to ease into. Last year, they shut down that Mountaineer offense pretty well.”

Overall, the podcast crew seems to believe that the game has the opportunity to be a close one, but that Penn State will triumph in the end.

“I think this is a fourth-quarter game,” said team member Danny Kanell. “It’s hard to win on the road in college football specifically. I think Penn State is more talented and I think they will probably pull away, but I think this will be a tightly contested game in the 4th quarter where all of a sudden it's gut check time.”

While I think this is going to be a difficult situation for Penn State, I'm pretty confident that the Nittany Lions are going to win this one,” Fornelli added.