We have officially wrapped up another exciting September of college football action.
Week 5 is in the books as we move towards October, where we'll get a much better idea of who is really contending for a spot in the inaugural 12-team version of the College Football Playoff, and these weekly projections become much more of a real debate.
So with the first month of college football complete, let’s take a look at how we expect the College Football Playoff bracket to shake out this fall based on what we have seen so far. And while we didn't manage to get a projection out last week, you should check out what our projections entering Week 4 looked like before reading on.
How are these rankings determined?
Each week this season, HailWV will be releasing a prediction for what we expect the CFP field to look like -- it will not necessarily reflect what we expect the rankings themselves to look like each week, but how the field would be seeded. As a reminder, the official process for selecting the College Football Playoff (CFP) field is as follows:
"The CFP Selection Committee ranks the top 25 teams at the end of the season, and the 12 playoff participants consist of the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams. The four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded one through four and receive a first-round bye. The schools seeded five through eight will host those seeded nine through 12 in first-round games. The quarterfinals and semifinals rotate annually among six bowl games – the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, Vrbo Fiesta Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential and the Allstate Sugar Bowl."From the CFP Website
PROJECTED 12-TEAM CFP FIELD ENTERING WEEK 6
Ranking | Team | Bid Type | Previous Ranking |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Ohio State | Big 10 Champion | 1 |
2 | Alabama | SEC Champion | 7 |
3 | Miami | ACC Champion | 3 |
4 | Iowa State | Big 12 Champion | NR |
5 | Texas | At-Large | 2 |
6 | Tennessee | At-Large | 6 |
7 | Oregon | At-Large | 8 |
8 | Georgia | At-Large | 5 |
9 | Penn State | At-Large | 10 |
10 | Clemson | At-Large | NR |
11 | Boise State | Mountain West Champion (G5 Representative) | 12 |
12 | Rutgers | At-Large | NR |
DROPPED OUT: Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss
A bit of a shift occurred this week, with only 9-of-12 teams remaining in the projected bracket, with just 3 teams maintaining their previous ranking and 2 new teams appearing in the Top 4 seeds.
Ohio State stayed steadfast at the top seed as the projected Big 10 Champion, with Alabama jumping into the 2-seed spot, positioning themselves as SEC Champion favorites after a marquee win over a Georgia team who entered the game ranked No. 2 in the AP Poll.
Miami (FL) pulled out a narrow victory against Virginia Tech and are still our projected ACC champs in our 3-seed, while Iowa State has risen to become the projected Big 12 champion and slid into the Top 4 despite being unranked in our last projection. Oklahoma State, who has dropped two straight conference games since our last projection, have went from the projected league champion and 4-seed to falling out of the bracket.
The conference layout has also shifted this week. Ole Miss drops out of the bracket after a loss to unranked Kentucky raises concerns, leaving just 4 SEC teams in the projection. The Big 10 jumps to 4 The Big 12 falls to just 1 team -- though BYU is looking strong -- and the ACC jumps to two teams, with Clemson rejoining the projected field after bouncing back strong from their Week 1 loss to Georgia.
Boise State is still in the fold as well, moving up to a projected 11th seed based on their AP ranking and the time they have to climb the polls this season. However, a late October matchup with an undefeated, Top 25 ranked UNLV looms large. The Rebels could own victories over 2 Big 12 and 1 ACC opponent in addition to Oregon State by season's end, and if they run the table they will easily have the most impressive G5 resume.