With the final week of the regular season here, West Virginia men's basketball (18-12, 9-10) got things kicked off right as they won a Quad 1 road game at Utah by a final score of 71-69.
What might this win mean for West Virginia’s NCAA Tournament chances?
Well, nearly every prominent bracketology site that you can find the Mountaineers in the big dance as a 10-seed (including ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm of CBS) ahead of Tuesday night’s matchup with the Utes.
Lunardi had West Virginia’s chances of making the dance at over 90%. It is safe to say, that at this point they may be a lock, and if not, they are very close to being one. With one game left in the regular season and the Big 12 Tournament next week, West Virginia is hopeful toreturn to the greatest stage of college basketball and participate in some March Madness.
First-year head coach Darian DeVries has done an incredible job leading his team, and likely first-team All-Big 12 performer Javon Small has been sensational all season. And despite starter and second-leading scorer Tucker DeVries getting shelved for the season with an injury during non-conference play, it seems the Mountaineers are set to achieve what many fans thought a long shot to start the year.
Just last week at HailWV we discussed the Mountaineers’ tournament chances with four games remaining. The skinny of it was:
- 0 wins down the stretch would have them on the outside looking in.
- 1 win would leave them with work to do in the Big 12 Tournament.
- 2 wins would have them squarely on the bubble.
- 3 wins would likely land them safely in the tournament field.
- 4 wins would land them potentially with a 6 or 7 seed in the big dance.
With three down and one to go, the Mountaineers have collected two wins. On Saturday, West Virginia will play their regular-season finale as they host the UCF Knights (15-14, 6-12) at the WVU Coliseum at 5 P.M. EST.
The Bubble Reality
You may have read it elsewhere or noticed it yourself, but the tournament bubble is incredibly weak this year.
This of, course, is to the Mountaineers' benefit. For example, UNC is on the bubble in a depleted ACC this year, and the Tar Heels are just 1-10 in Quad 1 matchups. Additionally, Oklahoma of the SEC is just 4-12 in conference play and yet find themselves on the bubble according to Lunardi.
The Sooners are not the only SEC team with a losing record in conference play that finds themselves on the bubble. Sure, the SEC has been incredibly impressive this season, but when have you seen a 4-12 team on the bubble in the last week of the regular season? The overall weakness of bubble teams will likely be a boon for WVU.
Worst Case Scenario
While things may be trending toward WVU getting into the tournament, consecutive losses may not bode well for their chances, and could either leave them on the outside looking in or competing in the “First Four.”
Simply put, if West Virginia were to lose its regular season finale at home to UCF, dropping to 9-11 in Big 12 play, and follow it up with a first-round exit in Kansas City, they may be sweating a bit on Selection Sunday.
This will especially be the case if there are a few bid stealers who win their conference tournaments and punch their ticket to the Big Dance.
Take Care of Business
It is important for the Mountaineers to finish the season strong.
Winning 3-of-4 to end the regular season would get WVU to .500 on the season in Big 12 play. With UCF coming to the Coliseum, it is important for the Mountaineers to pick up another win and head to Kansas City for the Big 12 Tournament with some momentum. With many of the belief that the Mountaineers have done enough to make the NCAA Tournament at this point, they need to do what they can to avoid being a part of the First Four in Dayton.