After ending the regular season with back-to-back wins, West Virginia appeared to be a “lock” for the NCAA Tournament. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and others had WVU safely in the field. After an extremely disappointing loss to Colorado in their first action in the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City, West Virginia has drifted toward the bubble again.
As of Lunardi’s latest projection on Saturday morning, WVU is one of the last four teams making the field, meaning they would be playing in the “First Four” in Dayton on either Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. That sure does not sound like a tournament “lock” which is where West Virginia allegedly was just days ago. Either Lunardi was wrong at the end of the regular season, or he’s wrong now.
A true lock would’ve meant that West Virginia could’ve lost to Colorado by 40 points and it wouldn’t have mattered for their NCAA Tournament chances. The 7-point loss appears to have mattered to Lunardi and others so much that West Virginia is squarely on the bubble heading into Selection Sunday. Jerry Palm of CBS currently lists WVU as part of the First Four in Dayton as well.
On the eve of Selection Sunday, it remains to be seen whether or not WVU will have its name called, and really there are 3 options for a team on the bubble at this point.
1. West Virginia lands safely in the tournament field and avoids playing in the First Four
2. West Virginia lands in the tournament field and has to play in the First Four
3. West Virginia has their bubble popped and lands on the outside looking in at the NCAA Tournament
Undoubtedly, West Virginia cannot afford to have several bid stealers reach the NCAA Tournament by winning their respective conference tournaments. There are still a few out there.
Additionally, with WVU now playing the waiting game, all they can do is watch and see what other bubble teams do. It’s rather interesting that WVU has drifted closer to the bubble considering a lot has gone right for them regarding the play of other bubble teams.
While both UNC and Texas collected wins on Thursday, against stiffer competition on Friday, they faltered. UNC had a second-half comeback against a Duke team missing Cooper Flagg came up short and Texas suffered an 11-point loss to Tennessee. With both of these schools, it is easy to find flaws in their resume. UNC finished with an abysmal 1-12 record against Quad 1 opponents. West Virginia finished 6-9 in Quad 1.
Meanwhile, in a loaded SEC, Texas finished with a conference record of 6-12. Regardless of how incredible the SEC has been, does a 6-12 record garner enough credibility over a .500 record in Big 12 play that the Mountaineers possess?
One of the notable things to go wrong on Friday was a bubble team in the Boise State Broncos collecting a win over the 1-seed in Mountain West, New Mexico. The Mountain West title game between Boise State and Colorado State is now between two teams squarely on the bubble. The winner gets the automatic bid while the loser will (much like WVU) be hoping to hear its name called on Sunday evening.