We're getting deep into November, and while it feels as if the college football season just started, we are only two weeks out from the end of the 2024 regular season.
This week, the third edition of the 2024 College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings will be released on Tuesday, November 19th at 7 pm EST, -- fans can follow along with the poll release on ESPN.
Now that we have a couple editions of the rankings released for the inaugural 12-team playoff setup, we're getting an idea of how the committee is approaching this weekly poll with a larger field looming and who exactly still has a shot to make the bracket.
On the even of another rankings release, let's take a look at how we expect things to shake out as we get closer to the postseason.
How are these rankings determined?
Each week this season, HailWV will be releasing a prediction for what we expect the CFP field to based on the committee rankings after previous week's action -- it will not necessarily reflect what we expect the rankings themselves to look like each week, but how the field would be seeded. As a reminder, the official process for selecting the College Football Playoff (CFP) field is as follows:
"The CFP Selection Committee ranks the top 25 teams at the end of the season, and the 12 playoff participants consist of the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams. The four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded one through four and receive a first-round bye. The schools seeded five through eight will host those seeded nine through 12 in first-round games. The quarterfinals and semifinals rotate annually among six bowl games – the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, Vrbo Fiesta Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential and the Allstate Sugar Bowl."From the CFP Website
PROJECTED TOP 15 IN THE CFP RANKINGS
Ranking | Team | Previous CFP Ranking |
|---|---|---|
1 | Oregon | 1 |
2 | Ohio State | 2 |
3 | Texas | 3 |
4 | Penn State | 4 |
5 | Indiana | 5 |
6 | Notre Dame | 8 |
7 | Miami | 9 |
8 | Alabama | 10 |
9 | Georgia | 12 |
10 | Ole Miss | 11 |
11 | Tennessee | 7 |
12 | Boise State | 13 |
13 | BYU | 6 |
14 | SMU | 14 |
15 | Texas A&M | 15 |
16 | Colorado | 17 |
17 | Clemson | 20 |
18 | South Carolina | 21 |
19 | Army | 24 |
20 | Tulane | 25 |
21 | Iowa State | NR |
22 | Kansas State | 16 |
23 | Arizona State | NR |
24 | Illinois | NR |
25 | Missouri | 23 |
PROJECTED 12-TEAM BRACKET ENTERING WEEK 13
TOP FOUR SEEDS (FOUR HIGHEST RANKED CONFERENCE CHAMPIONS, WILL RECEIVE FIRST-ROUND BYE):
1, Oregon (Big 10 Champion)
2. Texas (SEC Champion)
3. Miami (ACC Champion)
4. Boise State (Mountain West Champion, Group of 5 Representative)
FIRST ROUND MATCHUPS:
5. Ohio State vs. 12. BYU
6. Penn State vs. 11. Ole Miss
7. Indiana vs. 10. Georgia
8. Notre Dame vs. 9. Alabama
FIRST FOUR OUT:
Tennessee, SMU, Texas A&M, Colorado
In this projection, we don't envision a whole lot of shake up at the top of the bracket, and the conference champions that make the field are the same as last week's rankings.
The biggest changes involved are Tennessee falling out of the projected bracket and Georgia moving in after the Bulldogs defeated the Volunteers on Saturday, and Boise State projected as the fourth-best conference champions in the rankings -- that would give the Broncos a top-four seed and a bye in the first round, while the Big 12 Champion (currently projected as BYU) would fall to the 12th seed and have to travel for Round One.
In this projection, the Vols join SMU, Texas A&M, and Colorado on the outside looking in. This week, Indiana and Ohio State will meet in a Top 5 clash that will greatly impact the rankings in Week 14, While a Big 12 showdown between BYU and Boise State and a matchup between AAC program Army and Independent program Notre Dame will have serious ranking implications as well.