The 13-7 West Virginia Mountaineers look to snap a five-game skid as they play the 18-3 #8 Baylor Bears at 9:00 PM EST tonight. WynnBET has the Mountaineers as 14-point underdogs and +710 on the moneyline ($10 to win $71) while the over-under is 139.
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This is how we’re betting this game:
West Virginia vs Baylor Prediction
It was all good just three weeks ago. West Virginia sat at 13-2 and was poised to make a run in the Big 12 Conference. Fast forward and the Mountaineers have lost five straight and failed to cover the spread by an average of 6.4 points per game.
Their offense has fallen off a cliff as they rank 2nd-worst in overall shooting percentage in Big 12 conference play and 281st nationally in effective field goal percentage. They still have a good defense, however, that ranks 36th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency behind the 14th-best defensive turnover rate.
If the Mountaineers are going to keep this one close, they have to take advantage of a Baylor offense that ranks 202nd in offensive turnover rate at just over 19% of their possessions. West Virginia forced 13 turnovers in a nine-point loss to the Bears two weeks ago and they have to repeat that performance tonight.
For their part, Baylor has struggled to put teams away at home this season. They’re just 1-4 against the spread in their last five home games including two outright losses as double-digit favorites.
I’m holding my nose and taking the Mountaineers +14 (-110) in this one. The Bears only beat West Virginia by nine despite shooting 12/27 from beyond the arc (44.4%), well above their season average of 36.9%. Against a Mountaineers defense that holds opponents to 31.2% from three on the season, I expect some regression in that department tonight.
It’s worth mentioning that Baylor plays Kansas on Saturday as well, so Baylor could be guilty of looking ahead and not be fully focused against West Virginia. It may be ugly but this is the ultimate buy-low spot for the Mountaineers.
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