NCAA Tournament: The Geography Method


As many teams are there in the NCAA tournament, there are infinitely more ways to fill out your bracket. Some people pick by school mascot, some people pick by school colors, and some even pick by simple coin flips.

This year, I decided to create my own gimmick for picking the NCAA tournament. This year, I decided to select the tournament winners based on their geographical distance from the arena of competition for each game.

My theory is that I can predict 60% of the NCAA tournament results based purely on geography.

As I wrote out the bracket, it became apparent that a lot needs to go right for this bracket to have any semblance of a chance of reaching my goal. For starters, I am nearly 100% certain that I am the only person in the country to pick Northwestern State to make it to the Final Four. As a matter of fact, I am likely the only person outside of Natchitoces, LA (for the non-geo weenies, that is the home of NWSU) to pick the Demons to even beat Florida.

Another obvious fallacy of this bracket is Albany’s run to the Sweet Sixteen is only the second worst side effect of the geography method. The Duke Blue Devils should have no problem handling the Great Danes, but the same could have been said last year with then #2 Duke facing #15 Lehigh.

Otherwise, the bracket plays out pretty well with quite a few high seeds such as Louisville, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Kansas, and Indiana making it to the Elite Eight. I have to admit, I am a huge fan of Butler making the Final Four as an upset pick.

What do you think HailWV faithful? Will the Geography Method work or is it absolutely ridiculous.


As fate would have it, a gimmick such as the Geography Method is not a winning approach to filling out your NCAA Tournament bracket. The bracket has been utterly decimated on the court, with Northwestern State, New Mexico, and Butler all failing to advance to the Sweet 16.

In the first two rounds of tournament play, the Geography Method went 24-24 in individual picks. With the goal of exceeding 60% correct predictions, this bracket is doomed.

Of the remaining 14 match-ups, the Geography Method has already rendered 8 predictions incorrect. That means that even if all the remaining eligible teams win the match-ups according to the Geography Method bracket, there is only a possibility of 6 correct predictions.

So at best, the Geography Method will go 30-32 this year, or a prediction rate of 48.4%.

The only redemption this method could have rests on the backs of the Louisville Cardinals. At least then the method would be accurate at predicting the national champion, just nothing else in the field what so ever.